华尔街一扫阴霾，美股明年又能实现双位数涨幅？

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street banks predict that the U.S. stock market will achieve another year of double-digit growth by 2026, despite recent investor concerns over large tech companies' spending plans and potential AI bubble risks [1][3]. Group 1: S&P 500 Index Predictions - The average forecast from nine major investment banks suggests that the S&P 500 index will rise to over 7500 points by the end of 2026, representing an approximate 10% increase from current levels [1][3]. - The index closed at 6857 points recently, having reached a historical high of 6920 points in October [1][3]. - This growth would mark the seventh year of double-digit increases in the past eight years, although the growth rate is expected to slow compared to the 16.6% increase seen in 2025 and the average growth over the past decade [3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Influencing Factors - Analysts believe that the market has moved past the recent pullback caused by AI valuation concerns, supported by President Trump's tax cuts and expectations of interest rate cuts [7]. - Morgan Stanley analysts project the S&P 500 index will reach 7800 points by the end of next year, citing a combination of loose fiscal, monetary, and regulatory policies, along with favorable conditions for AI [7]. - Deutsche Bank forecasts the S&P 500 index will hit 8000 points by 2026, indicating a similar growth rate to 2025, driven by strong corporate earnings growth [8]. Group 3: Broader Market Trends - Outside the U.S., other stock markets are also expected to rise by 2026, though at a slower pace than U.S. markets. The average forecast suggests the European Stoxx 600 index will increase by 6.4% to around 615 points, while Japan's Topix index is expected to rise by 5.6% to approximately 3590 points [9].