英伟达CEO的“担心”：丢掉中国市场，等于培养下一个全球AI巨头

Core Viewpoint - Huang Renxun warns that if American companies allow Chinese competitors like Huawei to seize market share, China will soon seek to export its AI technology globally, creating an AI version of the "Belt and Road" initiative [1][10] Group 1: Market Concerns - Huang Renxun expresses deep concern over the Chinese AI chip market, currently estimated at $50 billion, which could grow to $200 billion by the end of 2030 [4] - NVIDIA's revenue from the Chinese market for 2024 is projected to be $17.1 billion, a 66% year-on-year increase, accounting for 13% of total revenue [4] - The share of NVIDIA in the Chinese market has dropped from 95% at the beginning of Biden's administration to 50% due to U.S. export controls on AI chips [5] Group 2: Legislative Challenges - Huang Renxun's primary goal during his Washington visit is to lobby against new AI chip export restrictions, particularly a proposal to include the GAIN AI Act in the annual defense authorization bill [3] - The GAIN AI Act would require U.S. chip companies to prioritize domestic market needs, imposing stricter limits on overseas orders, especially to China [3] - Although the GAIN AI Act was temporarily shelved, the underlying issue remains that trust in the Chinese market is difficult to restore [3] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Huawei is rapidly filling the market gap left by NVIDIA, with plans to launch advanced computing nodes and clusters by September 2025 [8] - Huawei's Ascend AI computing platform has achieved significant training efficiency improvements, with the ability to train models with 718 billion parameters [9] - Huang Renxun acknowledges that the issue is not technical but rather a matter of trust, predicting that NVIDIA's chip sales in China could drop to zero in the next two quarters [7] Group 4: Global Supply Chain Dynamics - The global high-tech supply chain is undergoing a structural transformation, shifting from an "efficiency-first" approach to prioritizing "security" and "political reliability" [13] - The EU has announced a $3.5 billion investment to establish a critical raw materials reserve plan to reduce dependence on Chinese rare earths [14] - The U.S. is also promoting an "AI critical materials supply chain alliance" with eight allies to create a de-China network for raw materials [15] Group 5: Technological Evolution - NVIDIA faces challenges not only from the Chinese market and policy restrictions but also from technological shifts, as it begins to enter the ASIC chip market [17] - The development of AI large models has led to algorithmic changes, increasing the value of specialized ASIC chips for specific scenarios [18] - Competitors like Broadcom, Marvell, and MediaTek are achieving explosive growth in the AI sector through collaborations with major tech companies [18]