白酒，反内卷！

Core Viewpoint - The online liquor market is experiencing significant price declines, with major brands like Moutai seeing prices drop below official guidance, raising concerns among traditional liquor retailers about the sustainability of their business models [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The online price of Moutai has fallen to 1499 yuan after subsidies, indicating a trend of continuous price reductions in the lead-up to the "Double 12" shopping festival [1]. - The liquor e-commerce sector is projected to reach a GMV of approximately 150 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth exceeding 20%, suggesting substantial growth potential despite current low online penetration rates of less than 15% [1]. - The white liquor industry is undergoing a "value refinement," transitioning from a reliance on channel inventory to a focus on brand alignment with actual consumer demand [2]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - Many liquor companies, except for a few like Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, are facing declines in both revenue and net profit, with some companies experiencing net profit drops exceeding 100% year-on-year [2]. - High inventory levels pose severe challenges to the cash flow of liquor companies and distributors, with the average inventory turnover days reaching 900 days, a 10% increase from the previous year [2]. - The phenomenon of price "inversion," where wholesale prices fall below factory prices, is emerging, forcing distributors to sell at lower prices to recover funds, which further erodes channel profits and undermines distributor confidence [2][3].