存储持续“疯涨” 业内：“要买终端赶紧买”

Core Insights - The storage chip industry is experiencing an unprecedented "super price increase cycle," with DRAM prices rising over four times and Flash prices nearly tripling within the year [1] - Micron Technology announced the termination of its consumer-grade Crucial memory and SSD business to focus on high-growth areas driven by AI demand [1][6] - The supply chain is facing significant challenges, with downstream manufacturers experiencing low inventory levels and being forced to accept high prices to maintain production [3][4] Price Trends - The price of 4GB DDR4x chips has surged from $7 at the beginning of the year to over $30 by mid-November, representing a 4 to 5 times increase [1] - Flash products, such as 64GB eMMC, have seen prices rise from $3.2 to over $8 [1] - Predictions indicate that storage prices may increase by an additional 20% to 30% in the first quarter of next year, following a 50% increase in the fourth quarter [11] Supply Chain Dynamics - Downstream manufacturers, including smartphone producers, are facing a "no rice to cook" situation due to low inventory levels, which are currently below the healthy range of 8 to 10 weeks [3][4] - Many manufacturers are not actively stockpiling but are instead forced to replenish inventory due to supply chain constraints [2][5] - The current supply tightness is exacerbated by AI-driven demand for memory and storage, which is prioritizing production for high-margin products like HBM and DDR5 [6][7] Market Behavior - Channel partners are adopting a "gamble on the market" approach, holding onto inventory in anticipation of further price increases [3] - Some manufacturers are adjusting product configurations to maintain core experiences while managing rising costs, potentially leading to a reduction in storage capacity in future products [10] - The shift in demand dynamics has weakened the bargaining power of consumer electronics manufacturers, forcing them to accept rising costs [11][13] Future Outlook - The exit of major players like Micron from the consumer market is creating opportunities for domestic storage manufacturers to fill the supply gap [12] - However, the overall supply-demand imbalance remains significant, with consumers likely facing higher prices and lower capacities for electronic products in the coming year [13]