AIA(HK:01299) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-08 05:59Core Insights - The insurance industry is expected to enter a new growth cycle by 2026, with a shift in investment logic from "seeking revaluation of existing business" to "valuing growth potential" [1][2] - The life insurance sector is anticipated to experience five key trends leading to a high-quality development phase, with leading companies likely to regain their market position [2] - The property insurance sector is projected to see stable profitability in auto insurance, while non-auto insurance and overseas expansion will contribute positively [3] Group 1: Life Insurance Industry - The life insurance sector is expected to see rapid growth in new business, embracing trends like "deposit migration" and a "new era of health insurance" [2] - The cost of new business is anticipated to decrease, enhancing the persuasive value of new business [2] - The structure of new business products is becoming more diversified, with leading companies optimizing their business structures and differentiating the quality of new business from peers [2] Group 2: Property Insurance Industry - Auto insurance is expected to see slow premium growth, with leading companies optimizing their business structure to improve underwriting profitability [3] - Non-auto insurance growth is projected to decelerate, while health insurance is expected to become a significant growth driver [3] - The current internal and external environment of China's property insurance industry shares structural similarities with Japan's post-1980s property insurance, presenting historical opportunities for successful overseas expansion [3] Group 3: Hong Kong Life Insurance - Hong Kong life insurance companies, such as AIA, have faced declines due to foreign concerns about Chinese assets and the outlook for the mainland insurance industry [4] - By 2026, as foreign attitudes towards Chinese assets shift and the mainland insurance industry enters a golden development period, Hong Kong life insurers may see improved growth trends and business structures [4] - The upward migration of customer demographics in the industry may make mainland business a significant investment highlight for Hong Kong insurers [4]