KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-08 07:02Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai has fallen below 1400 yuan, signaling a significant decline in its market value and challenging the long-standing perception of Moutai as a premium investment product [1] Group 1: Price Decline and Market Reaction - The official guidance price for Moutai has been breached, leading to complaints from distributors who feel they are suffering losses due to the price drop [1] - On platforms like Pinduoduo, Moutai is listed at 1399 yuan, which has intensified discussions about the brand's declining status [1] - Distributors express frustration, claiming they are not selling counterfeit products but are instead losing money on their investments [5] Group 2: Historical Context and Consumer Behavior - Moutai was once viewed as a luxury item with annual returns surpassing stock market gains, but its price has now halved, reflecting a market correction of its inflated value [6] - The tightening of regulations on public spending and a decline in demand for high-end gifts have significantly impacted Moutai's sales [6] - The consumer base for Moutai is aging, with younger generations showing less interest in traditional drinking customs, leading to a collapse in the consumer structure [6] Group 3: Industry Trends and Production Data - The white liquor industry has seen a drastic decline in production, with output dropping from 13.6 million kiloliters to 4 million kiloliters over the past decade, a decrease of over 70% [8] - Moutai may have some buffer due to its high profit margins, but lower-end liquor brands are struggling to survive in this challenging market environment [8] - Data shows a consistent decline in the production of white liquor from 2016 to 2024, indicating a long-term trend of decreasing demand [9]