Core Viewpoint - The company maintains a positive outlook on Cha Bai Dao (02555), projecting net profits of 870 million and 1.06 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a target price of 9.3 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 31% based on a P/E ratio of 14/12 times for 2025/2026 [1] Group 1: Company Adjustments and Innovations - The company is undergoing a deep adjustment period from 2024 to 2025, with initial positive results observed, and further improvements expected in 2026 [2] - In the second half of 2025, the company is restructuring its R&D organization and new product introduction mechanism to a more market-oriented approach, focusing on consumer insights and market trends [2] - Recent product innovations, such as the solid mango sago, have become a core competency, leading to a double-digit growth in same-store sales in November [2] Group 2: Sales Channel Exploration and Store Management - The company plans to enhance its coffee product line in 2026, utilizing fresh milk and fruits to boost morning sales and achieve scale effects, with 200 stores already equipped with coffee machines [3] - The company aims to expand its price range to meet the demand for lower-priced beverages in lower-tier markets, targeting a 3-4% increase in store expansion in tier 3-4 cities and a 6-10% increase in tier 4 and below [3] - A new membership pricing system is being implemented to guide consumer orders through online and offline channels, with a focus on encouraging in-store purchases [3] Group 3: Channel Operations and Profitability - The company plans to recover franchise subsidies by enhancing store profitability through standardized products, smart tea-making machines, and operational reforms [4] - Expected improvements in store and company profitability in 2026, with a projected dividend payout ratio of 60-80% over the next three years, corresponding to a current dividend yield of 5.4-7.2% [4]
中金：维持茶百道“跑赢行业”评级 目标价9.3港元