Core Viewpoint - The forum highlighted the potential for China's economy to achieve stable medium- to long-term growth driven by total factor productivity improvements and the rise of new economic sectors [1][2]. Economic Outlook - China's average GDP growth over the past few years has been around 5%, supported by structural changes such as strong export performance despite U.S. tariffs and a transition from old to new economic sectors [2][3]. - The share of consumption in GDP is expected to increase relative to investment from 2022 to 2024, indicating a shift in the economic growth model [2]. - The real estate sector's contribution to GDP has decreased from over 20% at its peak to 15%, with ongoing adjustments expected [2]. Industry Development - Traditional consumer goods and manufacturing markets are saturated, while new consumer categories and services show significant growth potential [3]. - The export structure has shifted from low-end products to mid-range machinery and high-end products, contributing to export resilience [3]. Social Considerations - To ensure equitable economic development, efforts should be made to reduce disparities in social security and per capita consumption between urban and rural areas [3]. Future Growth Projections - The average potential growth rate for China is projected to remain above 4% over the next decade, with a target for per capita GDP to double [3][4]. - Historical data indicates that total factor productivity has experienced rapid growth during key periods of economic reform, characterized by increased marketization, optimized resource allocation, and heightened competition [3].
渣打银行廖薇：中国经济转型迎接“长跑”，重点关注全要素生产率