东吴证券：国内外共振向上 重点关注海外工程机械行业景气度复苏

Core Viewpoint - The domestic excavator demand is expected to grow at an average annual rate of over 30% from 2025 to 2028, with peak sales projected to reach 250,000 units by 2028, although actual sales in 2025 may fall short due to funding availability issues [1][2] Domestic Market Summary - In the first ten months of 2025, domestic excavator sales increased by 19.6% year-on-year, indicating a significant improvement compared to 2024, marking a comprehensive recovery in the domestic construction machinery sector [1] - The sales of small excavators are expected to dominate in 2025, driven by ample central special government bonds, while the performance of medium and large excavators is hindered by poor local bond funding [1][2] - The overall trend indicates a mild recovery phase characterized by a lower slope but a longer cycle due to funding disruptions [2] Export Market Summary - Overseas excavator sales have been in decline since peaking in 2021, with a continuous drop expected from 2022 to 2025, primarily influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cycle [1][2] - A new upward cycle in overseas demand is anticipated to begin in 2026 as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting phase, potentially creating a resonance effect with domestic demand [2] Profitability and Cost Efficiency - The construction machinery sector is experiencing improved profitability due to increased capacity utilization and ongoing cost reduction efforts, with notable increases in net profit margins for major companies like Sany Heavy Industry and XCMG [2] - For instance, in the first three quarters of 2025, Sany Heavy Industry's net profit margin increased by 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [2] Investment Recommendations - The construction machinery sector is identified as being at the beginning of an upward cycle, with projected profit growth of over 20% in the next 2-3 years, and core stocks are currently valued at only 10-16 times their projected profits for 2026, suggesting a strong investment opportunity [3]