Founder Securities(SH:601901) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-09 03:31Core Viewpoint - Two major state-owned enterprises have signed a record-breaking order, potentially leading a new round of fleet upgrades. The long-term structural changes in global shipping, driven by aging fleets and decarbonization, will persist. Short-term, the rise in oil and bulk shipping rates is expected to benefit the shipbuilding industry. The company remains optimistic about the shipbuilding market's upward trend in the long term, highlighting the sector's growth potential, earnings certainty, and reasonable valuations [1]. Group 1 - Two major state-owned enterprises, China Shipbuilding Group and China COSCO Shipping Group, signed a cooperation agreement for new shipbuilding projects involving 87 vessels worth over 50 billion RMB. This collaboration signifies a shift towards a "manufacturing + operation" model, enhancing domestic shipping capacity and energy security while promoting green and intelligent ship solutions [2]. - The global new ship order market has shown a significant rebound in November, with a total of 1627 vessels ordered from January to November, a 37% decrease year-on-year. However, November alone saw 152 vessels ordered, a 72% increase from October [3]. - Chinese shipyards maintain a leading position in price, quality, and delivery time, capturing 59% of the global market share with 1067 vessels ordered from January to November, despite a 47% year-on-year decline [3]. Group 2 - The long-term outlook for the shipbuilding market is positive, supported by the aging global fleet and the ongoing transition to decarbonization. Currently, only 3.7% of active and under-construction vessels are dual-fuel [4]. - The demand for oil and bulk shipping is expected to resonate, with rising freight rates benefiting the shipbuilding sector. The VLCC freight rates have increased due to rising oil production in the Middle East and South America, with 38 new VLCC orders placed since July [4]. - The new energy supply chain is emerging as a significant demand source for bulk shipping, with the BDI index soaring by 31.4% in November. The full production of the Simandou iron ore project is projected to create demand for 116 new Capesize bulk carriers [4]. - The three core issues suppressing new orders—lack of shipbuilding capacity, funding, and clarity on what to build—are expected to be resolved by 2026, reinforcing the long-term positive outlook for the shipbuilding market [4].