瑞银预测：美光传统内存DDR毛利率将首次超过HBM

Core Insights - UBS indicates that despite high market attention on Micron's HBM business, traditional DDR memory is experiencing unprecedented profit margin growth due to capacity constraints [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The memory industry is undergoing a structural shift, with traditional DRAM profitability expected to surpass that of HBM due to increased supply tightness [1][2]. - UBS forecasts that traditional DRAM gross margins will reach a historical high of 67% by Q2 2026, surpassing HBM's gross margin of 62% [2][5]. Group 2: Financial Projections - For Q1 2026, traditional DRAM revenue is projected to be $8.22 billion, with a 1% quarter-over-quarter increase in shipment volume and a 16% increase in average selling price [2][6]. - UBS predicts that Micron's Q1 2026 revenue will be $13.2 billion, with an EPS of $4.27, driven primarily by price increases [6][7]. Group 3: HBM Business Outlook - HBM revenue growth is expected to slow due to capacity limitations, with Q1 2026 HBM revenue projected to grow approximately 35% quarter-over-quarter [6]. - HBM's contribution to total revenue is anticipated to rise from 17% in FY2025 to 26% in FY2027 [6]. Group 4: Long-term Industry Trends - The current semiconductor cycle is expected to be more prolonged than market expectations, driven by HBM's significant consumption of wafer capacity, which is creating a "crowding out" effect on traditional storage markets [5][6]. - UBS maintains a target price of $275 for Micron, citing favorable risk-reward dynamics due to the current supply-demand landscape [7].