告别底部徘徊？大摩上调2026年货运业展望至“有吸引力” Knight-Swift Transportation(KNX.US)仍为首选股

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has upgraded the outlook for the freight transportation industry in 2026 to "attractive," citing the best risk-reward profile since 2020, despite unclear industry prospects [1] Trucking Industry - In a bearish scenario, the trucking industry in 2026 is expected to be similar to 2025, but in a bullish scenario, stock prices could see over a 50% upside [1] - 2026 is anticipated to be a decisive year for autonomous trucks, as companies will seek to expand pilot fleets in preparation for commercial launches in 2027 [1] Rail Industry - The focus for the rail industry in 2026 will be on the merger developments between Union Pacific (UNP.US) and Norfolk Southern (NSC.US), among others [1] - If the fundamentals do not keep pace with the trucking industry during the upcycle, merger enthusiasm may decline; low single-digit percentage growth in volume and rates is expected [1] - Preference continues for Canadian rail companies over U.S. rail companies [1] Logistics/Third-Party Logistics Industry - 2026 may be a transformative year for brokers, as some stocks begin to reflect the "AI concept halo" [1] - The effectiveness and sustainability of technology enhancements will be evaluated, along with how AI-enabled brokers respond to the upcycle and maintain market share against asset-based carriers [1] Package Delivery Industry - 2026 is expected to be a critical year for package delivery companies as major cost/restructuring plans reach completion, providing clearer insights into normalized EPS levels [1] - Structural changes in the e-commerce market may continue, with rural delivery and returns becoming new competitive fronts [1] Stock Recommendations - Morgan Stanley has upgraded the ratings for Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP.US) and Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL.US) from "market perform" to "overweight" [1] - Knight-Swift Transportation (KNX.US) remains the top-ranked stock in the freight transportation industry for 2026, followed by GXO Logistics (GXO.US) and Ryder (R.US) [1] - Canadian National Railway (CNI.US) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City have entered the top five rankings [1]