「寻芯记」“鲶鱼”英伟达再入池：H200获“有条件”解禁，中国高端AI芯片竞争增变数

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has conditionally lifted the ban on NVIDIA's H200 AI chip sales to China, allowing NVIDIA to regain access to a significant market, albeit with a 25% revenue share taken by the U.S. government [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Impact - Following the announcement of the lifting of the ban, NVIDIA's stock price rose by 2.34% in after-hours trading, bringing its market capitalization to $4.51 trillion, maintaining its position as the world's largest company [2]. - Prior to the ban, revenue from the Chinese market accounted for 20% of NVIDIA's total income, but the company has seen its market share in high-end AI chips drop from 95% to 0% due to U.S. export restrictions [5][9]. - The conditional lifting of the ban is expected to allow NVIDIA to generate approximately $15 billion in revenue by clearing inventory, despite the 25% revenue share impacting its income [5][4]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The H200 chip is considered NVIDIA's second most powerful AI chip, with the more advanced Blackwell and the upcoming Rubin chips also in the pipeline [3]. - The return of the H200 may help NVIDIA regain some market share in China, but it is unlikely to return to previous highs of 90%, with estimates suggesting a recovery to 50%-60% market share due to domestic competition and geopolitical risks [6][7]. - The absence of NVIDIA in the Chinese market has provided opportunities for local AI chip manufacturers to grow, with companies like Cambrian and Moore Threads gaining traction during this period [6][7]. Group 3: Regulatory Challenges - NVIDIA faces additional challenges in the Chinese market, including scrutiny over security issues related to its chips and ongoing investigations by Chinese regulatory authorities regarding potential antitrust violations [8]. - The Chinese government has previously raised concerns about security vulnerabilities in NVIDIA's H20 chip, leading to demands for explanations and compliance with local laws [8]. Group 4: Financial Performance - In the third quarter of fiscal year 2026, NVIDIA reported record revenues of $57 billion, a 22% increase from the previous quarter and a 62% increase year-over-year, with a net profit of $31.9 billion, reflecting a 65% year-over-year growth [9].