Crypto markets sets odds of Nvidia stock hitting a record high by December 31, 2025

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency markets indicate that the likelihood of Nvidia reaching a new record high above $201 by December 31, 2025, is low, despite strong interest at various price levels [1][2]. Price Predictions - The market assigns a 57% chance for Nvidia to finish near $200, with lower probabilities for higher targets: 19% for $215, 4% for $230, and under 1% for $245 and $260 [1][2]. - There is a 10% chance of Nvidia stock finishing near $165 and a 5% chance of ending at $160, while the $190 bracket has an 85% probability, indicating confidence in maintaining elevated prices [3]. Market Sentiment - The overall sentiment suggests a stable but capped outlook for Nvidia, with little conviction that the stock will break into record territory over the next year [3]. Company Fundamentals - Nvidia benefits from increasing demand for AI infrastructure, strong data-center revenue, and an upcoming product roadmap, including the Blackwell platform and Rubin architecture expected in late 2025 [4]. Recent Stock Performance - As of the latest update, Nvidia stock was trading at $185, having closed the previous session up nearly 2%, and showed strength in pre-market trading [5]. - The stock gained momentum following an announcement that the U.S. will allow Nvidia to sell its H200 AI chips to approved customers in China, subject to a 25% levy, easing previous export restrictions [7]. - This announcement coincides with Congress considering a bipartisan bill that could block H200 and Blackwell shipments for 30 months, creating uncertainty in policy direction [8].