特朗普批准H200出口，美将鹰派降息，中美2026金融将合作？

Group 1 - Trump approved the export of Nvidia's H200, which serves a dual purpose: supporting Nvidia's demand and supply ratio of 12 to 1, indicating no bubble [1][4] - The approval of H200 signifies that the U.S. needs the purchasing power of East Asia, which also supports the AI bubble [4] - The second purpose is profit generation, with Trump planning to take a 25% cut for the government [5] Group 2 - The likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve is approximately 89%, but it may still adopt a "hawkish" approach to rate cuts [6] - Powell is expected to express uncertainty about next year's situation and may adjust the dot plot from three to two rate cuts [7] - The new chairman, Hassett, emphasizes that future rate cuts must closely monitor data, attempting to counter market expectations of blindly following Trump [8] Group 3 - A minimum of three to five rate cuts is anticipated next year, but the most critical aspect is the restart of quantitative easing (QE), now referred to as Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) [9] - Regardless of whether the Fed buys long-term or short-term bonds, the capital must flow into the market to generate profits [10] Group 4 - Speculation about further financial cooperation between China and the U.S. by 2026 is emerging, distinguishing between stock and incremental measures [11] - Incremental measures correspond to domestic demand, such as issuing special bonds, which do not involve the dollar [12] - Stock measures can be cooperative, as U.S. money printing can help alleviate issues in sectors like real estate, with H200 representing stock and domestic alternatives representing incremental growth [13]