Morgan Stanley(US:MS) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-09 17:22Group 1 - In November, China's exports grew by 5.9% year-on-year, reaching $330.3 billion, exceeding economists' expectations and improving from a 1.1% contraction in October [1] - Despite a nearly 29% year-on-year decline in exports to the U.S. for the eighth consecutive month, China's overall trade surplus for the first 11 months surpassed $1 trillion, reaching approximately $1.08 trillion, marking a historical high [1] - China's imports also increased by 1.9% in November, totaling over $218.6 billion, which is an improvement from the 1% growth in October [1] Group 2 - The U.S.-China trade truce, established during a meeting between President Trump and President Xi in late October, is expected to influence future export figures, although the full impact of tariff reductions may not be reflected until the coming months [2] - An official survey indicated that factory activity in China contracted for the eighth consecutive month in November, leading economists to caution against premature conclusions regarding the rebound in external demand post-truce [2] - Morgan Stanley projects that by 2030, China's share of global exports will increase from approximately 15% to 16.5%, driven by advancements in manufacturing and high-growth sectors such as electric vehicles and robotics [4]