光刻胶股从30元跌到4.4元，暴跌85%，外资却狂买2亿！到底为什么？

Group 1 - In Q3 2025, a notable change occurred in the shareholder list of a domestic photoresist company, with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, UBS, and Morgan Stanley collectively purchasing nearly 5 million shares despite the company's stock price plummeting from 30 yuan to 4.4 yuan, marking a 1700% drop in net profit in the mid-2025 report [1][3] - The foreign investment strategy reflects a significant bet on domestic substitution, as these institutions entered the top ten shareholders for the first time, with acquisition costs concentrated in the 6-7 yuan range, resulting in over 30% floating profit by early December [3][9] - The company has a total market value of 4.8 billion yuan, with its photoresist business accounting for 62% of revenue and a gross margin of 32%, despite an overall decline in performance [3] Group 2 - Photoresist is a critical consumable in semiconductor manufacturing, with the global market dominated by Japanese and American companies, which hold 87% of the market share, particularly in high-end sectors where domestic production is less than 1% for ArF photoresists and completely reliant on imports for EUV photoresists [5] - The Chinese semiconductor photoresist market is projected to reach 5.63 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 42.25% year-on-year growth, driven by increased demand from wafer fabs like SMIC and Huahong Group adopting domestic materials [5] - Domestic photoresist companies are advancing in production capabilities, with firms like Nanda Optoelectronics and Tongcheng New Materials achieving mass production of ArF/KrF photoresists, while others focus on specific segments like PCB photoresists [7] Group 3 - Foreign investors are betting on photoresist companies based on three clear logics: high certainty of domestic substitution due to Japanese export controls, low historical valuation with a price-to-book ratio of 1.2 compared to the industry average of 3.54, and the potential for significant performance improvement in small-cap stocks upon technological breakthroughs [9] - Similar cases have emerged where companies with traditional chemical businesses, like Xilong Science, have seen foreign investment despite poor performance, indicating a trend of foreign capital seeking opportunities in the photoresist sector [9]