屏住呼吸，今年最后一次降息，未来降太少，美股将暴跌

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Reactions - The market is anticipating a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a high probability of 87.5% for a 25 basis point reduction, but investors are more concerned about the future policy direction and potential hawkish signals from the Fed [1] - Morgan Stanley's warning about economic conditions, particularly in the retail sector, has led to a decline in its stock price, impacting the overall performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average [3] - Despite overall market pressure, technology stocks have shown resilience, contributing to a slight increase in the Nasdaq Composite Index [4] Group 2: AI Impact on Banking Sector - Major banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs, have indicated that generative AI is accelerating automation, significantly improving productivity while also leading to job restructuring and potential layoffs [10] - AI is primarily focused on automating repetitive tasks rather than replacing high-skill jobs, with banks targeting processes like customer onboarding and loan approvals for AI integration [11] - The commercialization of AI in banking faces challenges, including increased demand for high-performance computing and regulatory scrutiny, which could offset efficiency gains [12] Group 3: Long-term Workforce Implications - In the short term, lower-skilled positions may be at risk due to layoffs or hiring freezes, while technology roles related to data engineering and AI operations are expected to grow rapidly [13] - The investment strategy for bank stocks should incorporate both short-term AI implementation costs and long-term efficiency gains into valuation models [15] - Banks are advised to align workforce restructuring with comprehensive retraining programs to mitigate social risks and enhance service quality [15]