财通证券：原油大周期依赖供给出清 当下Q4旺季催化

Group 1 - The current demand is strengthening against the backdrop of OPEC+ production increases and tightening sanctions in Europe and the US, leading to a strong response in freight rates [1] - The supply side is currently not clearing well, but a high proportion of old ships indicates significant potential for clearing, which could lead to a wave of scrapping if gray market demand shrinks, thus providing long-term support for freight rates [1] - The distribution of crude oil, as an important raw material for energy and chemicals, is uneven, with nearly 60% of production concentrated in the Middle East and North America, while demand is primarily in East Asia and Europe, catalyzing a West-to-East oil transportation trade pattern [1] Group 2 - Freight rates are strongly correlated with stock prices, and supply clearing is a prerequisite for the larger cycle; historically, significant supply clearing has occurred before two major cycles from 1983-1991 and 1999-2004, providing solid support for subsequent freight rate elasticity [2] - OPEC+ has begun gradual production increases since April, leading to a recovery in downstream refinery operating rates and an increase in offshore floating storage, which has improved the supply-demand relationship and driven freight rates sharply higher [3] - As of December 3, 2025, the TCE for the TD3C route (Middle East to China) reached $121,000 per day, an increase of 412.9% from the beginning of the month, with the current Q4 peak season expected to further push freight rates higher due to low oil prices and increased compliance demand [3]