中泰证券：电力生产市场化趋势明确 光伏需求进入观察窗口

Core Insights - The report from Zhongtai Securities indicates that China's newly installed photovoltaic capacity reached 252.9 GW from January to October 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 39.5% due to the impact of policy 136 [1] - The demand for photovoltaic installations in 2025 is expected to be front-loaded, with significant installations in Q2, a short-term decline in Q3, a temporary low in August, and gradual recovery in September and October [1] - CPIA forecasts that China's new photovoltaic installations in 2025 could reach between 270-300 GW, showing a year-on-year change of -3% to +8%, indicating relative stability [1] Industry Outlook - The report suggests that China's photovoltaic installations will directly influence global installation trends, although there are no clear predictions for new installations in 2026 from industry associations and mainstream consulting firms [1] - Following the marketization of the electricity sector, the on-grid electricity prices for photovoltaic projects have decreased, which may lead to a temporary observation period for new projects [1] - Despite potential short-term challenges, the report anticipates that new photovoltaic installations in China will likely maintain above 200 GW in 2026, supported by supply-side reforms and efforts to stabilize supply-demand matching in the industry [1]