KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-10 05:46Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai, once considered "liquid gold," has experienced an unprecedented decline, with wholesale prices dropping to 1520 yuan per bottle, nearing the official guidance price of 1499 yuan, marking a 43% decrease from the peak of 2678 yuan in December 2023, reaching a ten-year low [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The decline in Moutai's price is attributed to multiple factors, including consumer downgrade, intensified anti-corruption measures, and a retreat from investment, leading to a rapid loss of the financial attributes of high-end liquor [3]. - Since 2024, there has been a reduction in banquets, a decline in gift demand, and tightening corporate procurement, causing Moutai to shift from being a "hard currency" to "difficult-to-sell inventory" [3]. - The manufacturer's missteps have exacerbated market panic, with reports of "suspension of shipments" being clarified as a result of having completed sales targets for 2025, rather than a strategy to control prices [3]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumer attitudes have fundamentally changed, with e-commerce prices for Moutai ranging from 1600 to 1850 yuan, leaving little room for arbitrage between wholesale and retail prices [5]. - The younger generation is leaning towards rational consumption, preferring to buy boutique and niche wines rather than paying a premium for brand names [5]. - The current market situation reflects a "value return" for Moutai, as its price has deviated from actual consumer demand over the past decade, becoming overly financialized and securitized [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the current downturn, Moutai's brand heritage remains intact, retaining long-term value for collection and banquet purposes [5]. - The era of easy profits from Moutai is over, and the company must focus on aligning with consumer needs, optimizing distribution channels, and controlling supply to rebuild market confidence [5]. - The current price of 1520 yuan may not be the bottom, indicating potential further declines if strategic adjustments are not made [5].