CNNP(SH:601985) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-09 13:46Core Insights - The core conclusion from Goldman Sachs' virtual research on China's nuclear power industry is that the installation trajectory for nuclear power is becoming increasingly positive, while the outlook for the solar power sector appears relatively weak. Additionally, four key opportunities in the nuclear power field have been identified [1]. Group 1: Installation Growth - The installed capacity of nuclear power in China is expected to double within the next decade, driven by favorable policy directions. The target for nuclear power's share of electricity generation is set to increase from 4% in 2024 to 10% by 2035, indicating a high double-digit compound growth rate in nuclear power generation from 2024 to 2035. This corresponds to an annual new installation capacity of 8-10 GW, compared to the 1-4 GW annual average from 2019 to 2024, marking a significant increase [2]. Group 2: Technological Development - The future technological roadmap for China's nuclear power over the next thirty years has been clarified, with different generations of technology playing distinct roles in achieving carbon neutrality goals. The three main technologies include: 1. The third-generation large reactor, Hualong One, which is crucial for meeting the 2035 nuclear power targets, with 41 units approved and 7 already operational. Each unit has an annual generation capacity exceeding 10 billion kWh and a design life of 60 years, extendable to 80 years [3]. 2. The third-generation small modular reactor, Linglong One, expected to be operational by 2026, which, despite higher capital costs, offers multi-purpose capabilities and an annual generation capacity exceeding 1 billion kWh [3]. 3. Fourth-generation reactors, including high-temperature gas-cooled reactors and molten salt reactors, which aim to meet high-temperature energy demands and reduce reliance on imported uranium [3][4]. Group 3: International Expansion - China's nuclear power sector possesses significant advantages in international markets, including production capacity, cost, and supply chain stability. The domestic annual capacity for nuclear reactors is estimated at 12 units, while domestic demand is only 8-10 units, allowing for export potential. The market strategy involves promoting Hualong One technology in emerging markets along the Belt and Road Initiative and targeting developed markets with Linglong One technology [5][6]. Group 4: Profitability Disparities - There will be notable differences in profitability across the nuclear power industry chain. Downstream operators like CGN Power and China National Nuclear Power expect that, despite growth in installed capacity, their profit growth will lag behind revenue growth due to declining grid electricity prices resulting from market reforms. In contrast, upstream supply chain companies are anticipated to have higher profit elasticity due to high entry barriers in the nuclear sector, with potential for increased order volumes and profitability [6].