刚刚！美联储“内斗”升级，大空头All in这一板块，英伟达H200解禁背后的惊人真相

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market indices experienced narrow fluctuations, resembling an "electrocardiogram," with a sense of unnecessary tension in the air [1] - The Dow Jones index closed at 47,560.29, down by 179.03 points or 0.38% [2] Federal Reserve Insights - The bond market is signaling skepticism about the Federal Reserve's potential for easing, as the 10-year Treasury yield is rising towards 4.2% despite expectations of a rate cut [3] - The upcoming FOMC meeting is anticipated to result in a 25 basis point rate cut, but Fed Chair Powell is expected to maintain a hawkish stance, complicating market expectations [4][6] Market Reactions and Strategies - Two potential scenarios are outlined for market reactions post-FOMC meeting: - Scenario A: Powell's hawkish comments lead to a market sell-off, particularly affecting tech stocks [6] - Scenario B: The market disregards Powell's rhetoric, continuing to rally under the influence of a more dovish outlook from figures like Hassett [6] - The term "Hassett Trade" has emerged, indicating a market bet on a weaker dollar and a re-inflationary environment [6] Nvidia's Market Performance - Nvidia's stock did not respond positively to the news of H200 chip exports to China, attributed to a significant tax requirement and regulatory hurdles [9][11] - The approval process for sales to China is expected to be lengthy, leading to a prolonged period of uncertainty for Nvidia's stock performance [11] Housing Market and Government Policies - Prominent investors like Michael Burry and Bill Ackman are betting on the privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, anticipating significant stock price increases if the government lowers capital requirements [13] - The potential risks include stock dilution and government control issues, making the investment landscape highly speculative [13] Walmart's Strategic Move - Walmart has transitioned from the New York Stock Exchange to Nasdaq, marking the largest transfer in U.S. stock market history, aiming to attract passive funds and signal a shift towards AI and automation [15] - This move is seen as a positive development for long-term investors, indicating Walmart's intent to redefine its market position [15]