ZGXT(SZ:000831) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-10 17:43Core Insights - The announcement of a "substantial framework agreement" between the US and China regarding rare earths has relieved the global tech industry, highlighting China's significant control over rare earth resources with 44 million tons, nearly half of the global total [1][3]. Group 1: Reserve Disparity - Global rare earth reserves are unevenly distributed, with China holding 44 million tons, accounting for 48% of the total 92 million tons worldwide, while the US has only 1.9 million tons, representing about 2% [3]. - China's reserves are 23 times greater than those of the US, indicating a significant disparity in resource availability and structural integrity [3]. Group 2: Production Control - China dominates rare earth production, with an expected annual output of 270,000 tons in 2024, making up 69.23% of global production, compared to the US's 40,000 tons [5]. - China employs a quota system to finely control market supply, maintaining a strict limit on heavy rare earth quotas for six consecutive years [5]. Group 3: Technological Monopoly - China controls over 90% of the global capacity in the critical and high-value separation and refining stage of rare earth processing [7]. - The country is the only one capable of industrially producing 6N-grade (99.9999%) ultra-pure rare earths, meeting the demands of high-end applications [7]. - China's separation costs range from $4 to $7 per kilogram, significantly lower than the $10 to $15 per kilogram costs faced by foreign companies [7]. Group 4: Policy Upgrades - A new export control policy from China's Ministry of Commerce marks a strategic shift from "resource control" to "dual control of technology and supply chain," affecting not only direct exports but also foreign products containing Chinese components [9]. - Following the announcement of this policy, prices for key heavy rare earths like dysprosium and terbium surged by 15-20% within a week [9]. Group 5: Industry Chain Control - China has established a complete industry chain from resource extraction to high-end applications, controlling over 90% of the mining quotas through leading companies [11]. - The US lacks the necessary rare earth refining capabilities, necessitating the transport of mined materials to China for processing [11]. Group 6: Supply Chain Reconstruction Challenges - Major consumers like the US, EU, and Japan are attempting to rebuild their supply chains but face significant barriers, including high technical hurdles and economic feasibility issues [13]. - The timeline for developing a complete supply chain from mining to production typically spans 5-10 years, complicating efforts to reduce reliance on Chinese rare earths [13]. - The most likely scenario is a "diverse but dependent" global market, with China maintaining over 70% market share while overseas alternatives are limited to lower-end segments [15].