段永平：有闲钱不如买茅台！投资大佬为何看不上银行存款？

Investment Logic - The investment decision should be based on future cash flow rather than price-to-earnings ratio, as emphasized by the company [3] - The company believes that holding onto stocks like Moutai is preferable to keeping money in the bank, especially given the current low interest rates [3] - The company acknowledges that the stock price may fluctuate, but maintains confidence in Moutai's long-term value [3] Interest Rate Reality - Since May 2025, China's banking sector has seen a significant decline in deposit interest rates, with major banks lowering the interest rate for demand deposits to 0.05% and one-year fixed deposits dropping below 1% for the first time [5] - The average interest rates for various deposit terms are as follows: 3-month fixed at 0.949%, 1-year fixed at 1.287%, 3-year fixed at 1.695%, and 5-year fixed at 1.538% [6][5] - The net interest margin for commercial banks has narrowed to 1.43% in Q1 2025, a decrease of 9 basis points from the previous quarter [5] Moutai Fundamentals - In the first half of 2025, Moutai achieved total revenue of 91.094 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.16%, and a net profit of 45.403 billion yuan, up 8.89% [8][9] - The company has a cash and cash equivalents balance of 142.885 billion yuan, providing a solid financial foundation for market adaptability and shareholder returns [8] - Moutai's international revenue grew by 31.29% year-on-year, indicating significant progress in global market expansion [9] Industry Challenges - Despite Moutai's stable performance, the broader liquor industry faces significant challenges, with other companies experiencing severe revenue declines [11] - The industry is undergoing a cycle of inventory, market drivers, and consumer changes, leading to excess stock that could take years to deplete [11] - Moutai's new chairman has emphasized a commitment to quality and long-term value, focusing on steady reform [11] Dividend Comparison - Moutai is projected to provide a dividend yield of approximately 3-4%, which is significantly higher than current bank deposit rates [13][15] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 23.957 yuan per share, totaling 30 billion yuan, and has announced a share buyback plan of 1.5 to 3 billion yuan [13][15] - The comparison of bank deposit rates and Moutai's dividend highlights the latter's potential for stable returns amidst declining interest rates [15]