高盛：人民币被严重低估，真实价值为5.0

China - The Chinese government has established a "moderately loose" monetary policy, leading to a steepening of the government bond yield curve, with the 30-year and 2-year yield spread reaching a year-to-date high. This is driven by liquidity easing expectations, with the central bank injecting 110.5 billion yuan in a single day and lowering the overnight repo rate to 1.28%, a new low for 2023. The long end of the curve is under pressure due to a significant supply-demand mismatch, with a 30% year-on-year increase in 30-year bond supply and a projected fiscal expansion in 2026 [5][12][15]. - Goldman Sachs estimates that the Chinese yuan is currently about 25% structurally undervalued, with a fair value theoretically anchored at 5.0. The bank has designated the yuan as a "high conviction" trade, arguing that even a gradual appreciation will maintain export competitiveness despite market concerns [7][10]. - Data since 2017 shows a strong correlation between a strong yuan and strong exports, contradicting traditional fears that yuan appreciation would hinder export competitiveness. This reflects the inherent resilience of China's macroeconomic fundamentals, where strong industrial competitiveness supports external demand expansion and currency stability [10][21]. - The "carry-to-volatility" ratio in the Chinese bond market has collapsed to extremely low levels, limiting the attractiveness of long-duration bonds. With the central bank's slow interest rate cuts already partially priced in, the meager carry space fails to adequately compensate for the volatility risks associated with holding long-term bonds [12][15]. - Recent data indicates that the complexity of China's export products has significantly diverged from low-end assembly represented by Vietnam, aligning more closely with high-end manufacturing characteristics of Japan [18]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has noted that the real effective exchange rate of the yuan has fallen to its lowest point in over a decade, enhancing China's export competitiveness but exacerbating global trade imbalances. The IMF has projected a GDP growth rate of 5% for 2025, while warning that excessive reliance on export-driven growth could escalate tensions with major trading partners [21]. United States - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, aligning with market expectations. However, there is a significant division among decision-makers, with some advocating for no change and others suggesting a larger cut. The Fed has also initiated a monthly purchase plan for short-term bonds to maintain ample reserves, indicating a shift from continuous easing to a more cautious approach [23][26]. - The latest dot plot from the Fed indicates a consistent median rate forecast, suggesting a gradual rate cut of 25 basis points annually over the next two years, with a more dovish outlook than previously anticipated [26][28]. - The Fed has raised its GDP growth forecasts for the next four years, reflecting stronger economic momentum than previously assessed. The inflation outlook has been adjusted downward, reinforcing the expectation of a "soft landing" for the economy [28]. - The asset-liability structure of American middle-class households is undergoing a significant transformation, with essential spending on housing, healthcare, and childcare now consuming a larger share of median income. This shift is creating purchasing power anxiety among households [33]. - The era of light-asset business models for tech giants is ending, as significant capital expenditures are now required for AI infrastructure, aligning these companies more closely with capital-intensive industries like energy [36]. - Apple's lagging AI strategy has led to a structural decoupling of its stock price from other tech giants, with its correlation with the sector dropping significantly. This has resulted in a market perception of Apple as a "anti-AI" asset, prompting efforts to reverse this trend through management changes [40]. Europe - The European Central Bank's executive board member has indicated that the next policy adjustment may be an interest rate hike, leading to a significant re-pricing of long-term interest rates in the Eurozone. Market expectations for a rate hike have shifted dramatically, with the probability now exceeding 50% [47]. Asia-Pacific - The Bank of Japan has disclosed that it holds approximately 83 trillion yen in ETFs, effectively locking in about 7% of the Japanese stock market's float. Despite plans for a gradual exit from this position, the central bank's holdings significantly influence market pricing [58]. - The high minimum trading requirements in Japan's stock market are hindering retail investor participation, with the median minimum investment amount being over ten times that of the U.S. market [58][61]. - Nintendo is facing severe challenges to its profitability due to rising component costs, particularly for its upcoming Switch 2 hardware, which has led to a significant drop in its stock price [64].