2025年暴跌50%！诺和诺德遭遇史上最差一年，“减肥药狂潮”仿佛从未发生

Core Viewpoint - Novo Nordisk has faced its worst performance year ever due to poor clinical trial results, multiple profit warnings, and intense market competition, leading to a stock price drop of over 50% in 2023, erasing gains since the approval of Wegovy in 2021 [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The stock price of Novo Nordisk has fallen more than 50% this year, nearly negating the significant increase since Wegovy's approval for weight loss treatment in 2021 [1]. - Analysts predict that Novo Nordisk's sales may decline by 2026, contrasting sharply with the previous growth rates of 25%-30% during its prosperous period [3]. - The current trading price of the stock is approximately 14 times expected earnings, which is half of the average valuation over the past five years and over 10% cheaper than the MSCI World Pharmaceuticals Index [3][10]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The main threat to Novo Nordisk comes from Eli Lilly, whose stock has surged over 28% this year, contrasting with Novo Nordisk's decline [4]. - Novo Nordisk's weight loss drugs are reportedly less effective than those from Eli Lilly, which has enhanced Eli Lilly's market communication capabilities [7]. - The market sentiment has shifted, with investors favoring Eli Lilly as the primary beneficiary of the significant growth in the market, indicating a strong preference for Eli Lilly over Novo Nordisk [7]. Group 3: Future Prospects - Novo Nordisk is banking on new product launches to recover from its current challenges, including a more potent version of Wegovy and an oral version expected to launch early next year [8]. - The new CEO, Mike Doustdar, has indicated that the company has "sufficient" pills for targeted release and is in preliminary talks with Hims & Hers Health Inc. for remote sales of obesity pills [8]. - Analysts remain optimistic about Novo Nordisk, with 17 out of 33 institutions maintaining a buy rating, suggesting that the stock price drop may have been overdone and that a higher valuation is justified based on the company's strong R&D track record [10].