科磊(KLAC.US)订单加速与HBM/先进制程需求共振，小摩上看目标价1485美元

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating on KLA Corporation (KLAC.US) with a target price of $1485, citing improved order books and expected revenue growth in the first half of 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Revenue and Growth Expectations - KLA's order book has shown continuous improvement since the earnings report, with revenue expected to grow in the low to mid-single digits in the first half of 2026, up from previous expectations of flat to slight growth [1] - The company anticipates that the growth rate in the second half of 2026 will exceed that of the first half, with an overall growth in wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) projected at 10%-12% for the year [1] - KLA is confident in achieving a revenue target of $14 billion and earnings per share (EPS) of $38 for 2026, with Morgan Stanley's EPS estimate exceeding $39 [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competitive Position - The demand for analyzing defects and measurement issues in IC manufacturing has significantly increased due to the rising complexity of semiconductor manufacturing [2] - KLA's acquisition of Orbotech has diversified its presence in end markets such as PCB, SPTS, and advanced packaging, enhancing its market share and technological leadership [2] - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15%-20% in EPS over the next three years, supported by strong demand in advanced process foundry/logical chips and memory [2] Group 3: Valuation and Market Conditions - Morgan Stanley's target price of $1485 is based on the assumption that KLA will achieve an EPS of $45 by the end of 2026, with the stock trading at the high end of the peer range (25-35 times earnings) [2] - The semiconductor industry is characterized by high cyclicality and intense competition, which may lead to significant supply-demand fluctuations [2] - The rapidly changing market conditions necessitate that KLA keeps pace with technological advancements; failure to do so could impact its market leadership, particularly in executing its extreme ultraviolet lithography mask inspection strategy [2]