Meta大转向：下一代模型“牛油果”推迟，开源时代或将终结

Core Insights - Meta is accelerating its adjustment of AI strategy, with the next-generation model "Avocado" being postponed from late 2025 to Q1 2026 and likely to be released in a closed-source format, indicating a shift from its previously open-source approach [2] - The company is increasing its capital expenditure for 2025 to $70-72 billion, focusing on training clusters and data center expansions, which is seen as a foundational investment for its AI initiatives [3] Group 1: Organizational Changes - The delay of Avocado reflects deeper organizational changes, with a significant turnover in AI leadership as the company shifts from an academic-oriented research system to one that emphasizes product implementation and speed [6] - The introduction of external high-end talent, including Alexandr Wang from Scale AI, has accelerated this restructuring, leading to a more closed and startup-like environment within the Meta Superintelligence Labs [6][8] - The AI-related teams have undergone multiple rounds of restructuring and layoffs, with over 600 personnel in foundational research being cut, indicating a move towards a more engineering-focused and commercially driven approach [8] Group 2: Hardware Strategy Shift - Meta's AI strategy overhaul has impacted its hardware roadmap, with a comprehensive review of the Reality Labs hardware department and a slowdown in the development of augmented reality (XR) projects [11] - The company plans to reduce its metaverse budget over the next two years, reallocating resources towards AI models and related technologies such as smart glasses and voice assistants [11] - Meta is transitioning from a primarily self-built infrastructure to a more pragmatic mixed model, expanding partnerships with CoreWeave, Oracle, and Blue Owl Capital to support the high computational demands of closed-source models [11] Group 3: Strategic Direction - The postponement of Avocado signifies a clear strategic pivot for Meta, driven by competitive pressures and the need to deliver investment returns more rapidly [12] - This shift represents Meta's third major strategic migration in over a decade, moving from a focus on mobile internet and the metaverse to a more concentrated effort on closed-source AI models [12] - The current environment reflects a transition from visionary discussions to a focus on ensuring competitive positioning, with all resources being mobilized to avoid being left behind in the evolving landscape [12]