2026年，AI服务器贵、贵、贵

Core Insights - 2026 is identified as a critical window for AI server system upgrades, driven by significant design changes in GPU and ASIC technologies [1][4] - The demand for AI servers is expected to surge, with NVIDIA's platform projected to see cabinet demand more than double from approximately 28,000 units in 2025 to at least 60,000 units in 2026 [2][26] - The overall cost of AI servers is anticipated to rise significantly due to advancements in power supply, cooling solutions, and PCB requirements [5][26] Group 1: AI Server Hardware Upgrades - NVIDIA is set to launch the GB300, Vera Rubin platform, and Kyber architecture in 2026, enhancing computational power and cabinet density [1][4] - The GPU power design is evolving, with TDP increasing from 700W for H100 to 3700W for VR200 NVL44 CPX by late 2026, necessitating a shift to liquid cooling solutions [4][23] - The transition to more efficient power systems is underway, moving from 12V VRM to 48V DC bus systems to reduce conversion losses [4][14] Group 2: Market Demand and Supply Chain Dynamics - ODM manufacturers like Hon Hai, Quanta, Wistron, and Wiwynn are ramping up production, with Hon Hai's AI server cabinet shipments increasing by 300% quarter-over-quarter [10][12] - In November, Quanta and Wistron reported record monthly revenues, with Wistron showing a remarkable 194.6% year-over-year growth [12] - The market share for AI server cabinets in 2025 is projected to see Hon Hai holding over 52%, with Quanta and Wistron at approximately 19% and 21%, respectively [13] Group 3: Power and Cooling Solutions - NVIDIA's Kyber project aims to redefine power supply architecture for AI data centers, with a target to produce new power solutions by the end of 2026 [15][17] - The cooling technology is evolving from air cooling to liquid cooling, with the GB300 adopting a full cold plate liquid cooling solution to handle up to 1400W [18][23] - The cost of cooling components is expected to rise, with the total value of cooling components for the next-generation Vera Rubin platform projected to increase by 17% [23] Group 4: PCB and Component Upgrades - The demand for high-end PCBs is surging, with the number of layers and material quality increasing significantly due to the enhanced functionality of AI servers [24][25] - The global PCB market is expected to grow, with high-end HDI boards and multi-layer boards seeing demand increases of 14.2% and 18.5%, respectively [25] - The price of PCBs is anticipated to double with each upgrade cycle, reflecting the growing complexity and performance requirements of AI hardware [25] Group 5: Capital Expenditure Trends - Major cloud service providers (CSPs) are increasing their capital expenditures, with a projected total of over $600 billion in 2026, reflecting a 40% year-over-year growth [26][29] - CSPs like Google, Meta, and Amazon are significantly raising their capital expenditure forecasts for 2025, indicating strong demand for AI infrastructure [29] - The ongoing investment from CSPs provides a solid foundation for the rising costs associated with AI server upgrades [26][29]