地平线：智驾“国产平替芯”，能扳倒英伟达吗？

Core Insights - The electric vehicle (EV) industry is facing overcapacity and declining net profit margins as it transitions from electric vehicles to smart vehicles, with user experience upgrades driving the shift towards intelligent driving technology [1] - Horizon Robotics, a key player in the domestic intelligent driving chip market, is set to launch its high-end J6P chip in 2025, aiming to compete with Nvidia [1][2] Market Space for Intelligent Driving Chips - The penetration rate of intelligent driving features in new energy vehicles is accelerating, with only 11% of new cars in China equipped with L2+ level ADAS in 2024, but expected to rise significantly by 2025 [3][4] - The demand for higher computing power in advanced intelligent driving systems is increasing, with current mainstream solutions requiring nearly 500 TOPS, which is 4-5 times that of high-speed NOA [5][9] Competitive Landscape - The intelligent driving chip market is characterized by low domestic production rates, with significant room for domestic replacement [25] - Major competitors include traditional automotive chip companies, consumer electronics chip companies, startup intelligent driving firms like Horizon Robotics, and automakers developing their own chips [25][27] Horizon Robotics' Position - Horizon Robotics is positioned as a leading domestic player in the intelligent driving chip market, with a market share of 30-40% in 2024 [1][36] - The company is focusing on a cost-effective approach with its J6P chip, which is expected to be priced significantly lower than Nvidia's offerings, enhancing its appeal to mass-market automakers [50][53] Future Market Projections - The market for intelligent driving chips is projected to grow at a CAGR of 36% from 2025 to 2030, reaching a market size of 79.3 billion yuan [17] - The average value of chips per vehicle is expected to increase from approximately 716 yuan in 2024 to nearly 3000 yuan by 2030, driven by the rising share of high-performance chips [19][21]