【窩輪透視】紫金礦業熊證2天暴漲50%，背後關鍵邏輯拆解

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge of 50% in the bear certificate for Zijin Mining (02899) over two days is attributed to the stock's adjustment amid fluctuations in gold prices and the US dollar, highlighting the leverage effect of warrants in responding to stock movements [1][4][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - Zijin Mining's latest price is 32.66 HKD, showing a slight increase of 0.49% compared to the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 249 million HKD [1]. - The gold mining sector has exhibited significant divergence due to the volatility of the US dollar and international gold prices, with gold prices increasing nearly 58% year-to-date [1]. - On December 9, Zijin Mining's stock closed at 32.5 HKD, experiencing a single-day decline of 4.24% with a trading volume of 1.718 billion HKD [1]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators for Zijin Mining show support levels at 29.6 HKD and 31.3 HKD, with resistance levels at 34.1 HKD and 35.4 HKD, indicating a short-term adjustment pressure [1]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Zijin Mining is at 53, suggesting a neutral to sell signal, with a technical summary indicating a sell signal strength of 8 [1]. Group 3: Bear Certificate Performance - The bear certificate for Zijin Mining (product code 53593) has increased by 50% over two days, while the underlying stock has decreased by 5.52% during the same period [4][7]. - The leverage effect of warrants allows for amplified returns, with the bear certificate demonstrating a significant response to the stock's downward trend [7]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Investors holding the bear certificate (53593) are advised to monitor its low premium and leverage of 7.7 times, suggesting a stop-loss strategy to mitigate risks from potential gold price rebounds [7][8]. - For investors anticipating a market rebound, the preferred call options are the Morley call option (20411) with a leverage of 7.6 times and the lowest premium, followed by the Fubon call option (20250) with a leverage of 6.8 times [8][9].