博通电话会后下挫5%，730亿美元的AI订单被嫌少，CEO坦言别高估定制芯片

Core Viewpoint - Broadcom's AI market sales outlook did not meet high investor expectations, leading to a decline in stock price after hours despite a significant backlog of AI product orders totaling $73 billion [1][9]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In fiscal year 2025, Broadcom achieved record total revenue of $64 billion, a 24% year-over-year increase, driven primarily by AI, semiconductor, and VMware businesses [3][26]. - AI business revenue grew by 65% year-over-year, reaching $20 billion, contributing significantly to the overall revenue growth [3][26]. - The fourth quarter saw record revenue of $18 billion, a 28% increase year-over-year, exceeding guidance due to strong performance in AI semiconductors and infrastructure software [9][34]. Group 2: AI Business Outlook - Broadcom currently holds a backlog of $73 billion in AI-related orders, expected to be fulfilled over the next 18 months, representing nearly half of the company's total backlog of $162 billion [5][31]. - The company anticipates that AI business revenue will double in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, reaching $8.2 billion [5][31]. - The demand for AI networking products is robust, with over $10 billion in backlog orders for AI switches, driven by the deployment of data center infrastructure [14][30]. Group 3: Custom AI Chip Business - Broadcom has successfully secured its fifth XPU customer, with a $1 billion order, in addition to a $11 billion order from existing customer Anthropic, indicating strong market recognition for its custom AI accelerator solutions [11][5]. - The company emphasizes that the development of custom chips is a lengthy process, and there is no evidence suggesting a widespread shift towards customer-owned chip development [12][43]. Group 4: Non-AI Semiconductor Business - Non-AI semiconductor revenue for the fourth quarter was $4.6 billion, showing a 2% year-over-year increase, primarily due to seasonal benefits in the wireless business [19][31]. - The company expects non-AI semiconductor revenue to remain stable, with a forecast of approximately $4.1 billion for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 [22][31]. Group 5: Shareholder Returns - Broadcom announced a 10% increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.65 per share and extended its stock buyback program [5][36].