信达证券：煤炭板块具有中长期战略性投资机遇 消费增长需求韧性凸显

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector is positioned for medium to long-term strategic investment opportunities due to its "anti-involution" characteristics, with high dividend safety margins and potential for profit recovery not yet fully reflected in valuations [1] Supply Dynamics - Domestic coal production growth is stable, with a total output of 3.97 billion tons from January to October 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [2] - Coal imports have significantly decreased, with a total of 388 million tons imported from January to October 2025, down 11% year-on-year [2] - The construction of coal projects by major companies reached 208.7 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 28.2% [3] - The coal production in the central and eastern regions is expected to decline, with a forecasted drop of about 70 million tons by 2035 [3] Demand Trends - Coal consumption remains robust, with total consumption of 3.57 billion tons from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [5] - The power sector is the main driver of coal demand, accounting for 63.5% of total consumption, while the chemical industry is the fastest-growing sector [5] - Non-electric demand for coal grew by 3.6% year-on-year, with significant contributions from the chemical industry [7] Price Outlook - Coal prices are expected to stabilize within a reasonable range, with the average price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port at 690 yuan per ton, down 19% year-on-year [8] - The price is supported by policy measures and cost factors, with projections for 2026 indicating a price range of 730-760 yuan per ton for thermal coal [8] Investment Recommendations - Focus on stable and robust performers such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as companies with valuation appeal like Yanzhou Coal and Xinji Energy [11] - Attention should also be given to high-quality metallurgical coal companies such as Shanxi Coking Coal and Pingmei Shenma [11]