Seek .(US:SKLTY) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-12 06:45Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is currently experiencing a new wave of innovation, transitioning from small molecule drugs to advanced therapies such as monoclonal antibodies, antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs), small nucleic acid drugs, and cell therapies, which offer more precise targeting and improved patient compliance [4][5][6]. Group 1: Innovation Trends - The global pharmaceutical industry is focusing on five key innovation directions, including the development of GLP-1 drugs for obesity, which are projected to generate approximately $51.8 billion in sales by 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 42%-46% [6]. - ADCs are showing promise in replacing traditional chemotherapy for breast cancer and urothelial carcinoma, with expected sales of around $13 billion in 2024, a 25% increase from previous years [6][7]. - PD-1 monoclonal antibodies are recognized as a cornerstone in cancer immunotherapy, with projected sales exceeding $50 billion in 2024, marking a growth of over 10% [7]. - The prevalence of autoimmune diseases has increased from approximately 7.7% in 2000-2002 to about 11% in 2017-2019, indicating a growing market for innovative treatments targeting these conditions [8]. - Small nucleic acid drugs are expanding from rare genetic diseases to chronic conditions, with a peak sales estimate of around $3 billion for the siRNA drug Leqvio, approved in 2021 [8]. Group 2: China's Pharmaceutical Landscape - China's pharmaceutical industry has rapidly evolved over the past decade, with significant reforms initiated in 2015 that aligned the drug approval process with international standards, facilitating the approval of innovative drugs [9][10]. - The "engineer dividend" in China has led to a surge in talent across all segments of the pharmaceutical industry, enhancing the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of drug development and production [10][11]. - Despite a late start, China's innovative drug sector is experiencing remarkable growth, with a rising share of the global market, currently estimated at 3%-5% compared to a population share of about 18% [15][16]. - Recent government policies are aimed at supporting the development of innovative drugs, with comprehensive measures to enhance research funding, market access, and clinical application [19][20]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The valuation of innovative drug companies typically employs a pipeline DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) approach, focusing on late-stage or highly probable products, while also considering the lifecycle of drugs and their patent protection [21][22]. - An alternative valuation method based on peak sales (PS) is gaining traction, allowing for a more straightforward assessment of potential revenue based on market consensus [22]. - Investment strategies emphasize the importance of established pharmaceutical companies with strong R&D capabilities and product pipelines, as well as biotech firms with high-potential single products targeting unmet clinical needs [27][28].