信达证券：2026年原油基本面见底有望 石化产业链有望迎来共振周期

Group 1 - The core view is that the oil market is expected to bottom out in 2026, with oil prices likely to fluctuate between $55 and $65 per barrel due to multiple factors [1] - On the supply side, OPEC+ is shifting to a moderate production increase model, while U.S. shale oil production growth is weak, leading to a tightening supply environment [1] - Global oil demand is entering a plateau phase before peaking, with a slow but resilient growth of approximately 800,000 to 1,000,000 barrels per day [1] Group 2 - The refining supply structure is accelerating optimization, with the government promoting the elimination of backward production capacity and optimizing supply structure in the petrochemical industry [2] - The domestic demand for refined oil has peaked, and the transition in oil consumption structure is deepening, while chemical oil demand remains in a long-term growth channel [2] - The refining industry is expected to enter an upward cycle due to improved supply structure and steady demand recovery [2] Group 3 - Investment recommendations include upstream companies with strong dividend attributes such as CNOOC, PetroChina, and Sinopec, as well as oil service companies like CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering [3] - In the downstream refining sector, recommendations focus on large private refining companies with scale advantages and rich product layouts, such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [3] - Companies with enhanced industrial chain synergy, like Tongkun Co. and Xin Fengming, are also suggested for attention [3]