浙商证券林成炜：从“人口数量红利”走向“人口质量红利” 提高消费率不等于需求侧刺激

Group 1 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is a transitional phase in achieving socialist modernization, with high-quality development as the core focus amidst significant global changes [1][2] - The economic model in China is transitioning from a "demographic dividend" based on quantity to a "quality dividend," emphasizing the need for high-skilled talent due to increased automation in manufacturing [3] - The recent Central Economic Work Conference prioritized expanding domestic demand, highlighting the importance of boosting consumption for the healthy operation of the Chinese economy [3] Group 2 - To enhance consumption, it is essential to increase the actual income and income expectations of workers, alongside reforms in income distribution policies such as tax adjustments [3] - The A-share market is expected to experience a structural market characterized by low volatility dividends and technological growth [4] - Gold prices are anticipated to continue rising until 2026, although the rate of increase may slow due to improving U.S. economic conditions and stabilizing geopolitical situations [4] - Basic metal prices are expected to see a favorable performance, particularly copper, as supply and demand reach a new equilibrium [4]