茅台集团紧急打响“价格保卫战”

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the price of Feitian Moutai below 1500 yuan, high inventory levels among distributors, and fluctuating stock prices have raised concerns about the end of the "liquid gold" myth. However, the company is undergoing a necessary value reassessment and market clearing, which is essential for healthier and more sustainable development [1]. Group 1: Price and Value - A price correction does not equate to a collapse in value. The current batch price around 1500 yuan has decreased nearly 30% from the peak in early 2025 but remains close to the official guidance price of 1499 yuan, indicating a shift from "financial speculation" to "real consumption" [4]. - The previous years saw a price bubble driven by non-consumption demand, which overstretched long-term potential. The current market correction opens reasonable entry points for genuine consumers, benefiting the core user base and enhancing the opening rate, which is vital for high-end liquor [4]. Group 2: Brand Resilience and Strategy - Moutai's fundamentals remain robust, supported by its unique production area, five-year base liquor storage cycle, and strategic capacity control. Even amid weak consumption, Moutai remains an irreplaceable "social currency" during traditional peak seasons like Mid-Autumn and National Day [4]. - The company has initiated a "stability strategy" to limit supply to low-price channels, strengthen e-commerce cooperation, and combat counterfeit products, effectively curbing disorderly price declines. Historical data shows that Moutai has consistently returned to a stable trajectory after deep corrections due to its strong channel management [4]. Group 3: Growth and Brand Development - The company is actively exploring new growth drivers, optimizing direct sales through the iMoutai digital platform, launching premium products, and expanding into cultural tourism and IP development to enhance brand depth. Moutai is no longer solely reliant on the Feitian product line [6]. - By 2025, the direct sales ratio is expected to exceed 45%, significantly reducing the impact of fluctuations in the traditional distributor system. The government's support for high-quality national brands remains strong, with Moutai recognized as a symbol of Chinese manufacturing and cultural export [6]. - Despite challenges from changing drinking habits among younger consumers and economic cycles, true luxury brands maintain their status through time and quality rather than short-term speculation. The current correction is viewed as a new starting point rather than an endpoint [6].