KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-12 14:00Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai, once considered "liquid gold," has fallen below the official guidance price of 1499 yuan, marking a significant shift in the Chinese consumer market and reflecting deeper changes in the industry [1][4]. Price Decline - Moutai's wholesale price for 53-degree 500ml bottles dropped to 1485 yuan, with box prices at 1495 yuan, both breaking the long-held 1499 yuan threshold [1]. - Compared to the peak price of over 2200 yuan at the beginning of 2025, the decline exceeds 30%, with some e-commerce platforms offering promotional prices as low as 1399 yuan [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The price drop is a result of a prolonged decline, starting with the first breach of the 2000 yuan psychological barrier in June 2025, followed by continuous decreases throughout the year [3]. - Retail prices in offline stores have decreased from over 2000 yuan to around 1580 yuan, allowing consumers to purchase Moutai at more accessible prices [4]. Supply and Demand Factors - The reversal in supply-demand dynamics is the fundamental reason for the price drop, with Moutai's production capacity expected to reach 48,000 tons in 2025 and social inventory estimated between 120 million to 220 million bottles [6]. - Demand has weakened significantly, with government consumption dropping to 0.8% and business banquet demand reduced by 30%, while younger consumers show less interest in high-proof liquor [6]. Channel Changes - The transformation of distribution channels has disrupted the traditional pricing system, with direct sales from Moutai increasing from 13.5% in 2020 to 46.8% [6]. - E-commerce platforms are using Moutai as a "traffic tool," leading to a vicious cycle of price cuts and inventory issues [6]. Financial Implications - The financial appeal of Moutai has diminished, with annualized returns dropping below 5%, prompting speculative funds to withdraw [6]. - Prices for previously inflated products, such as the "scattered Moutai," have plummeted over 70%, now below 3000 yuan [6]. Industry Impact - The collapse of Moutai's price has triggered a domino effect across the high-end liquor sector, with other brands like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao experiencing significant price drops [9]. - Among 18 listed liquor companies, only Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu have shown slight growth, while others face substantial declines in revenue and profit [9]. Future Outlook - The decline in Moutai's price signifies the end of an era reliant on government consumption and speculative investment [11]. - Moutai is adapting by introducing smaller packaging and new products aimed at younger consumers, while industry analysts suggest that 2026 may mark a turning point as inventory levels normalize [11].