美日韩氢能 “凉了”？中国已碾压式超越!复制下一个“宁德时代“

Core Insights - Hydrogen energy is gaining attention as a clean and efficient alternative to traditional fossil fuels, but the current global situation is complex with most hydrogen still produced from coal and gas, leading to significant emissions [2] - The demand for hydrogen is expected to rise, with global consumption projected to reach approximately 100 million tons in 2024, yet low-emission hydrogen accounts for less than 1% of total production [2][4] - High production costs and inadequate infrastructure are major barriers to the growth of the hydrogen sector, with only 7% of announced projects moving forward due to market uncertainties and regulatory challenges [4][5] Industry Overview - The hydrogen market is shifting focus from passenger vehicles to industrial and commercial applications, as the cost of hydrogen fuel cells for vehicles remains significantly higher than electric vehicles [5][9] - Countries like the US, Japan, and South Korea initially embraced hydrogen energy but are now facing setbacks due to policy changes and market dynamics, allowing China to gain a competitive edge [7][9] - China has been aggressively investing in hydrogen technology since 2020, with plans to establish over 400 hydrogen refueling stations by the end of 2025, representing one-third of the global total [13][20] Technological Developments - Innovations in hydrogen production technologies, such as solid oxide electrolysis and carbon capture, are progressing, but the overall transition to hydrogen in new sectors remains slow [5][11] - China leads in hydrogen patents, with over 80,000 expected by the end of 2024, significantly outpacing Japan and the US in low-carbon hydrogen technology [15][17] - The hydrogen industry in China is characterized by a strong supply chain and advanced technologies, although it still faces challenges related to standards and regulations [15][20] Market Dynamics - The global hydrogen market is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting a market size exceeding $204.5 billion by 2045, driven by increasing demand for low-emission hydrogen projects [20][22] - Despite challenges in the US and other regions, the overall hydrogen sector is expected to expand, with China positioned to lead in green hydrogen production by 2030 [20][22] - The cumulative sales of hydrogen vehicles in China have reached 24,900 units, indicating a growing acceptance and market potential for hydrogen-powered commercial vehicles [22]