谁做下一任美联储主席，华尔街亮态度

Core Viewpoint - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, supports Kevin Warsh for the Federal Reserve chairmanship, warning that Kevin Hassett's potential appointment could undermine the Fed's independence and lead to rising long-term borrowing costs [1] Group 1: Dimon's Analysis - Dimon believes Warsh would be a "great chairman" while expressing concerns that Hassett may quickly lower short-term rates to align with President Trump's economic demands [1] - He emphasizes that the Fed can only control short-term rates, while long-term rates are determined by the market, which could react negatively to Hassett's perceived lack of independence [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Since late November, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has risen from 4.0% to 4.2%, indicating that the market is pricing in risks associated with Hassett's candidacy [2] - Concerns about inflation are also rising, as the 5-year forward inflation swap rate has increased by 0.06 percentage points, reaching a one-month high [2] Group 3: Investor Concerns - Senior investors managing a $30 trillion U.S. Treasury market have expressed concerns to Treasury officials regarding Hassett's political ties and their potential impact on the credibility of monetary policy [4] Group 4: Trump's Preferences - President Trump has shown dissatisfaction with current Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not significantly lowering rates and has indicated that loyalty and willingness to cut rates are key criteria for his selection [5] - Hassett, a former White House insider, is viewed as the frontrunner due to his public support for aggressive rate cuts, despite attempts to assert his commitment to Fed independence [6] Group 5: Warsh's Background - Warsh, a former Fed governor and economist at the Hoover Institution, has received backing from Wall Street figures like Dimon, despite being viewed as overly hawkish prior to the 2008 financial crisis [7] - The selection process for the new Fed chair is ongoing, with Trump expected to interview more candidates soon, highlighting the tension between Wall Street's preference for an independent candidate and the White House's inclination towards a loyalist [7]