知名投资者看衰特斯拉：问题不少，2026年将是“清算年”

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's future is seen as increasingly uncertain, with 2026 identified as a critical year for the company to demonstrate substantial progress in its ambitious goals, particularly in autonomous driving technology [1][2]. Group 1: Concerns About Autonomous Driving - The primary concern for Tesla is its autonomous driving technology, which if it fails to meet market expectations, could undermine the bullish investment logic surrounding the company [1]. - Ross Gerber, a long-time investor, has shifted from being a supporter to a critic, emphasizing that 2026 will be a year where Tesla must show tangible results in its plans [2][9]. - Gerber attributes Tesla's struggles in the autonomous driving sector to its refusal to adopt lidar technology, which has allowed competitors like Waymo to gain a significant market advantage [7][10]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Waymo is currently leading the autonomous driving market, having established a strong presence in major U.S. cities, while Tesla is just beginning to deploy its autonomous taxi service [10]. - Gerber believes that Alphabet, Waymo's parent company, is a better investment choice due to its resources and established market position, which puts Tesla at a disadvantage [10]. Group 3: Leadership and Public Perception - Gerber has criticized Elon Musk for being distracted by other ventures, which he believes has negatively impacted Tesla's stock performance and operational focus [5][6]. - The public perception of Musk has also become a concern, as his political involvement has polarized consumer opinions, potentially affecting Tesla's market appeal even if it catches up technologically [10].