Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's interest rate strategists predict that the U.S. Treasury yield curve will steepen due to short-term bonds, with short-term rates declining faster than long-term rates in a "bullish steepening" scenario [1][2]. Group 1 - The increase in unemployment numbers or a continued rebound in labor force participation raises the risk of rising unemployment rates, leading to a bullish steepening outlook for the 2026 market [1][2]. - The market is believed to have already priced in the Federal Reserve's expectations for further rate cuts in the second half of this year, which will stabilize the middle part of the yield curve [1][2]. - Under strong economic conditions, a dovish Federal Reserve, and increasing supply concerns, the yield curve is expected to steepen further [1][2].
花旗:美债收益率曲线料因短债推动趋陡