茅台停货后价格“起飞”，济南酒商：价格“半天一变”

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai has implemented a supply control policy, halting the distribution of all Moutai products to distributors until January 1, 2026, leading to a significant price increase for its flagship product, Feitian Moutai [1][10]. Price Dynamics - The market price for 2025 Feitian Moutai has surged from approximately 1499 yuan per bottle on December 12 to 1600 yuan by December 14, reflecting a rapid price change within a short period [2][6]. - Sales volume has doubled in the days following the announcement of the supply halt, as consumers rush to purchase amid fears of further price increases [4][6]. Supply Control Measures - Moutai's short-term measures include a complete halt on product distribution to distributors until early January 2026, aimed at alleviating financial pressure on distributors during the year-end period [8][10]. - The company plans to significantly reduce the quotas for non-standard products, with specific reductions including a 30% cut for Moutai 15-year and 1-liter Feitian Moutai, a 50% cut for Zodiac Moutai, and a complete cessation of supply for colorful rare Moutai [8][10]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The recent price rebound is attributed to tightened supply and improved market expectations, with industry experts noting that the production growth of Moutai's base liquor has nearly stagnated from 2021 to 2024, reinforcing scarcity expectations [10]. - Key factors influencing future price movements include the pace of inventory reduction, the release schedule for core products in 2026, and the actual recovery of consumer demand [11].