SWSC(SH:600369) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-15 16:12Group 1 - The economic growth target for 2026 is expected to remain around 5%, with an actual growth rate of approximately 4.9% and a nominal GDP growth rate rising to about 4.2% [1][12][49] - Investment in the manufacturing sector is projected to grow by 5.2% driven by high-end and intelligent upgrades, while infrastructure investment is expected to increase by 6% due to major projects [1][30] - Real estate investment is anticipated to see a narrowing decline to -10%, with a focus on stabilizing new housing supply under the "good housing" standard [33][37] Group 2 - The consumer market is expected to grow significantly, with an optimistic forecast of a 5% increase in retail sales, particularly in county-level consumption and services such as healthcare and education [1][43][51] - The CPI and PPI are projected to rebound to 0.5% and a range of -1% to 0, respectively, indicating a focus on price stability [1][12] - The policy environment will continue to be supportive, with fiscal policies maintaining a loose stance, including a budget deficit rate potentially exceeding 4% and an expansion of special bond issuance [1][2][30] Group 3 - Global capital flows are shifting towards a geopolitical orientation, with China transitioning from a recipient of foreign investment to an exporter, particularly in future industries and critical metals [2][30] - The domestic development model is shifting from "investment in things" to "investment in people," aiming for a dynamic balance between efficiency and equity, with a projected increase of nearly 8 trillion yuan in consumer scale during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][30] - The economic landscape is showing structural differentiation, with the U.S. experiencing a cooling job market and Europe showing varied economic strength, while emerging markets face slowing growth [2][30]