美股 AI 投资到底有没有泡沫

Core Viewpoint - The healthy development of the AI industry requires abandoning "bubble anxiety" and "scale worship," focusing on core technology from a long-term perspective, and promoting practical commercialization [1] Group 1: Structural Bubble - The debate over the AI bubble in the U.S. is fundamentally about the imbalance between high investment and low returns, which manifests differently across hardware, software, and applications [2] - Nvidia, as a key player in the "computing power arms race," has seen its AI chip business revenue surge by 210% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with a gross margin of 78%, but its stock price and valuation are increasingly showing signs of a bubble [2][3] - Major tech companies like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google are expected to double their capital expenditures to over $470 billion by 2026, with nearly 60% directed towards Nvidia, amplifying the risk of over-investment in the industry [3] Group 2: Real Value - The current NASDAQ expected P/E ratio of 26 is relatively moderate compared to the 80 during the 2000 internet bubble, indicating that not all U.S. AI investments are a bubble [7] - Companies like Nvidia and Google have established strong positions in AI chips and large models, making their investments technically reasonable [7] - The revolutionary potential of AI for scientific research and industrial upgrades is real, as evidenced by initiatives like the "Genesis Plan" launched by the Trump administration [7] Group 3: Rationality and Overheating - In contrast to the U.S., China's AI investment is characterized by "excessive rationality and insufficient heat," with a lower overall bubble risk but some local areas needing caution [8] - Chinese companies are avoiding the U.S. path of "stacking computing power" and are making steady progress in domestic chip replacement [9] - However, there are signs of bubble risks in certain sectors, with some startups blindly following trends without core technology, leading to resource waste [9]