KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-16 04:03Price Fluctuation Key Facts - On December 12, the price of Feitian Moutai fell below the official guidance price of 1499 yuan per bottle, reaching a historical low of 1485 yuan, with some e-commerce group prices dropping to 1399 yuan [3] - On December 13, the price rebounded dramatically, increasing to 1510 yuan in the morning, then to 1530 yuan at noon, and finally reaching 1580 yuan by evening, marking a single-day increase of over 6% [3] - The stock price of Kweichow Moutai also rose in tandem, indicating a "stock-wine linkage" effect [3] Core Drivers of Price Movement - A short-term emergency measure was implemented, halting all product supplies to distributors starting December 13 until January 1, 2026, alleviating year-end financial pressures on distributors and preventing panic selling [4] - The supply halt cut off new market supply, leading to speculation among scalpers about "supply shortages," with prices in places like Tianjin reaching 1630 yuan per bottle [4] - Long-term structural reforms include a 50% reduction in the quota for non-standard products by 2026, focusing on three main products: Feitian Moutai (1500 yuan+), premium Moutai (2000 yuan+), and Moutai 1935 (600 yuan+) [4] Controversial Focus: Sustainability of the Rebound - Proponents argue that the precise supply reduction policy combined with demand for the Spring Festival could stabilize prices around 1580 yuan, which is close to the comprehensive cost line for distributors [5] - Critics highlight the unresolved high inventory levels, estimating social inventory at 120 million to 220 million bottles, with a real opening rate of less than 40%, indicating a need for 2-3 years for inventory digestion [6] - Concerns exist regarding the effectiveness of the policy; if sales during the 2026 Spring Festival do not meet expectations, prices could drop to 1200-1300 yuan, nearing the factory price of 1169 yuan [7] Implications for Consumers and Investors - A window for personal consumption may emerge if prices stabilize below 1500 yuan, making Moutai more appealing compared to Wuliangye priced at 800 yuan, although caution is advised regarding the authenticity of low-priced e-commerce offerings [8] - For Spring Festival purchases, a reasonable buying range is suggested to be between 1550-1600 yuan [9] - The investment landscape appears fragile, with short-term policy-driven market fluctuations lacking fundamental support [10] Fundamental Contradiction: Policy Intervention vs. Market Dynamics - The recent price surge is seen as a result of "shock therapy," highlighting Moutai's disconnection from real demand [12] - While the policy may provide short-term relief, the high social inventory and consumption gaps remain unresolved, and true price stabilization will depend on the efficiency of the "de-financialization" process and the real opening rate [12] - The transition of Moutai from an "investment product" to a "consumer product" is viewed as the fundamental path for the industry to emerge from its cyclical challenges [12]