KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-16 06:49Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market, particularly the price of Feitian Moutai, experienced a significant surge, with prices rising from 1490 yuan to 1580 yuan per bottle within a day, marking a notable increase of 90 yuan [1][3]. Price Fluctuation - On December 12, the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai fell to 1485 yuan per bottle, dipping below the official guidance price of 1499 yuan, leading to discussions about the end of the "Moutai myth" [3]. - The price rebounded sharply on December 13, starting at 1490 yuan and increasing to 1580 yuan by the evening, with some regions reporting even higher prices, such as 1630 yuan in Tianjin and 1680 yuan in certain Beijing stores [3][6]. Policy Changes - The price volatility was triggered by Moutai's recent channel control policy, which includes a temporary halt on product supply to distributors until January 1, 2026, aimed at alleviating financial pressure on distributors [6]. - Starting in 2026, Moutai plans to significantly reduce quotas for non-standard products, with reductions of 30% for Moutai 15-year and 1-liter Feitian Moutai, and a 50% cut for zodiac Moutai, while completely ceasing supply of colored glaze products [6][13]. Market Reactions - Different market participants reacted variably to the price increase; some distributors opted to sell off inventory at higher prices, while others remained cautious, concerned about the long-term effects of the policy changes [8]. - The secondary market saw a split among scalpers, with some leaving the market due to reduced profit margins, while others took advantage of the situation to raise prices during weekends when distributors were not active [9]. Capital Market Response - The stock price of Kweichow Moutai rose significantly during the price surge, closing at 1476.00 yuan per share on December 13, resulting in a market capitalization increase of over 10 billion yuan, also positively impacting other liquor companies like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao [11]. Industry Context - The price fluctuations reflect the broader challenges facing the high-end liquor industry, which has been dealing with high inventory levels and extended turnover days, with high-end liquor inventory turnover reaching 120 days and mid-range products facing over 35% channel pressure [11]. - The consumption structure is shifting, with traditional government consumption declining and business and younger consumers becoming the new mainstay, although the latter group tends to favor rational consumption over speculative buying [11]. Strategic Intent - Moutai's policy adjustments aim to address industry issues by reducing sources of channel losses and focusing resources on core products, with price anchors set at 1500 yuan, 600 yuan, and 2000 yuan for its main offerings [13]. - The market is divided on the implications of the price increase, with some optimistic that Moutai's proactive control of supply will help clear channel inventories and restore the pricing structure [13][15].