中泰证券机械行业2026年投资策略：聚焦新技术 拥抱顺周期

Group 1 - The mechanical industry is expected to outperform the market in 2025, with the equipment sector showing overall growth but with varying internal performance [1] - Domestic demand remains weak with infrastructure investment growth at low levels, while external demand is recovering with improvements in exports and orders [1] - The mechanical equipment industry maintains a "buy" rating, focusing on new technologies such as humanoid robots, nuclear fusion, quantum technology, low-speed unmanned systems, and perovskite [1] Group 2 - In 2026, China's economic recovery momentum is expected to continue, with a moderate rebound in macroeconomic conditions and improvements in domestic manufacturing demand [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes forward-looking industries such as quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, nuclear fusion, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and sixth-generation mobile communication [2] - Key focus areas include new technologies and cyclical recovery [2] Group 3 - The industry requires continuous innovation to drive manufacturing upgrades, with a focus on humanoid robots, nuclear fusion, quantum technology, low-speed unmanned systems, and perovskite [3] - Humanoid robots are shifting from thematic speculation to value validation, with production expected to ramp up in 2026 [3] - Nuclear fusion is seeing accelerated technological progress and sustained policy support, with a clear long-term commercialization outlook [3] - Quantum technology is advancing rapidly, with China having a window to catch up, focusing on quantum computing, quantum communication, and quantum precision measurement [3] - Low-speed unmanned systems are showing commercial potential, particularly in logistics and sanitation [3] - Perovskite technology is reaching a cost-performance turning point, with large-scale production expected [3] Group 4 - The overseas expansion is expected to enhance industry prosperity, while domestic policy support is driving renewal demand [4] - Export conditions are anticipated to remain favorable, with global manufacturing PMI showing signs of recovery [4] - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing strong recovery, with high growth in overseas exports and stabilization in domestic sales [4] - The oil service sector is entering an upward cycle, driven by the natural gas industry and increased demand for AI computing power [4] - Consumer equipment innovation is accelerating, with rising export conditions and faster penetration of "AI + equipment" [4]