美股转熊只是空忧虑？美银调查：基金经理情绪罕见进入“全面乐观”模式

Group 1 - The core sentiment among fund managers is optimistic, with a confidence level reaching 7.4, the highest in four and a half years, indicating readiness for the new year [1] - The composite exposure to stocks and commodities has reached its highest level since February 2022, reflecting a favorable environment for these assets during economic expansion [1] - Over 75% of asset allocators are adjusting their portfolios for a risk-on environment before 2026, betting on global economic resilience and advancements in artificial intelligence [3] Group 2 - Approximately 57% of respondents expect a soft landing for the U.S. economy, with only 3% predicting a hard landing, marking the lowest level in two and a half years [6] - Cash holdings have decreased to a historical low of 3.3%, down from 3.7% the previous month, indicating increased investment activity [6] - Market sentiment indicators are below the threshold that typically indicates overheating, suggesting potential for further market gains [8][11] Group 3 - The breadth of the stock market rally is expanding, with cyclical and defensive stocks showing significant upward movement, indicating a positive growth outlook [8] - Historical data suggests that periods where cyclical stocks outperform defensive stocks lead to positive returns for the S&P 500, with median returns of 2% over one month and 6% over three months [9] - Many sentiment indicators do not show extreme optimism, which is typically seen at market tops, suggesting a bullish trend for the stock market in the coming year [11]